5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – October 13th, 2023

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The Chutzpah Issue Chutzpah is a Yiddish word that loosely translates to a combination of gall, obnoxious assumptions, and courage. There’s an old saying that the definition of chutzpah is killing your parents and begging the judge for leniency because you’re an orphan. I also like the way Futurama “explained” it. In this week’s 5 … Read more

Clarification on Oil Prices

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This piece was originally published on October 13th, 2023. I got a great question today from DKI reader, Eric, who correctly pointed out that it appeared I was claiming that Russian refining difficulties could lead to lower crude prices. The relevant paragraph is from the Energy section of today’s CPI post. I’ve re-read it, and … Read more

The Bond Vigilantes Have Arrived

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This piece was originally published on October 12th, 2023. For the past two years, the financial world has focused on the actions of the Federal Reserve, wondering when they’d pause rate hikes or pivot to lower rates. While the Fed has an enormous amount of power, they only control the very short end of the … Read more

CPI Preview

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September CPI comes in at 3.7% which was above expectations. I’m updating the charts and will have a full update for subscribers this morning. Please check back – should have it done before the open.

Counter-Intuitive Inflation – Epilogue

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This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Epilogue: There’s no avoiding the fact that US government liabilities are already at a level that can’t be paid, and Congress is going to continue spending us further into bankruptcy (super-bankruptcy?). I want to provide some clarity … Read more

5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – October 6th, 2023

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The Things That Aren’t an Issue Issue The market is deep into over-reacting to surface analysis mode. Stock prices are responding to news no one will remember in 5 days or to data that’s going to be revised out of meaning next month. In this special issue of the 5 Things, we’re going to focus … Read more

Israel, Energy, and Some Things That Might Not Be True

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This piece was originally published on October 10th, 2023. In yesterday’s post, I mentioned the old saying that “in times of war, the first casualty is the truth”. There are a lot of interesting theories being discussed regarding the war in Israel. At this point, it’s too early to tell what’s real and what’s speculation, … Read more

Counter-Intuitive Inflation – Conclusion

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This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Conclusion: Right now, the Federal Reserve is doing the right thing. Inflation is a long-term problem, and sticky services inflation combined with rising energy prices mean the disinflation story is dead for now. Raising interest rates is … Read more

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