June PCE of 2.6% – Slightly Above Expectations

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This morning, we got the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up 0.1% vs last month and 2.5% vs last year. The monthly number accelerated by 0.1% and the yearly declined by 0.1%; both very small changes in trend. The 2.5% annual … Read more

Macro Commentary and an Unsurprising Conclusion

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DKI published a white paper in November of 2021 warning that inflation was a big and non-transitory problem. By May or June of 2022, most of the big macro strategists were already calling for Federal Reserve rate cuts despite continued high inflation. I’ve spent the past two plus years saying rate cuts would eventually come, … Read more

Weekly Points – July 19th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Rate Cut Expectations are 100% Issue

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This was a fascinating week featuring political shifts, increased market volatility, and a week-long drop in the stock prices of the mega-cap tech leaders that have been supporting the equity market indexes the past couple of years. This week, we’re focused on higher retail sales and wondering if anything will slow the consumer. Higher jobless … Read more

June PPI is Way Above Expectations

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This piece was originally published on July 12th, 2024 Overview: Today we got the June Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI is similar to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) except it measures pricing changes experienced by manufacturers and suppliers of goods and services. Because price changes in the PPI make their way into the CPI … Read more

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