The Fed Holds
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Bitcoin – It’s All About the Fed Right Now
Bitcoin is an asset with no cash flows, no interest payments, and no fundamentals. That means explanations for short-term volatility are often little more than guesses. However, this time, there is an easy explanation for the volatility of the recent few weeks. In general, Bitcoin and gold tend to experience higher dollar prices when the … Read more
Weekly Points – December 13th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Fed Does Not Have Inflation Under Control Issue
Both the CPI and the PPI rose from the prior month (again) as DKI predicted. Yet, the Fed is about to cut rates for the third time this year. Just a reminder that we can make money even from bad policy, so make sure your portfolio is prepared for more inflation. The European Central Bank … Read more
Weekly Points – November 29th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Consumers Are Revolting Issue
This week presents more evidence that a weak private market economy and inflation are taking an increased toll on the American consumer. Luxury sales are falling with consumers seeking out used and discounted items. While companies like $MSFT, $GOOG, and $AMZN buy more $NVDA chips to power AI datacenters, consumers balk at buying AI-powered electronics … Read more
Weekly Points – November 15th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Everything Points to Inflation Issue
A while back, we tried to transition to more stock-related “Things” for this piece. Then, we get a week like this one where all the news is macro and inflation. We’re nothing if not flexible so that’s what we have this week. Inflation indexes come in above expectations and above last month. DKI warned the … Read more
Weekly Points – August 16th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Disinflation Issue
The big news this week was the lower-than-expected CPI and PPI figures for July. While expectations for a September 50bp (0.5%) rate cut by the Fed changes on a daily basis, DKI agrees with current consensus that we’ll see a 25bp cut next month. We believe that’s premature and unwise, but still think that’s what’s … Read more
July PPI is Below Expectations
The PPI stands for Producer Price Index. The reason it’s important as a measure of inflation, is generally, producers see an increase in prices first. When those producers pass on price increases to consumers, we then see that as inflation reflected in a higher CPI (consumer price index) or PCE (personal consumption expenditures). I’ve been … Read more
Weekly Points – July 12th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Nice Going Milton Issue
When I was growing up in the Detroit area, the Zoo there did a famous commercial where the animals were getting ready to go “on stage” for the opening. At one point, all the monkeys ran to the right encouraged by one in the front saying “Ok guys, this way”. Then, all the monkeys ran … Read more
June PPI is Way Above Expectations
This piece was originally published on July 12th, 2024 Overview: Today we got the June Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI is similar to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) except it measures pricing changes experienced by manufacturers and suppliers of goods and services. Because price changes in the PPI make their way into the CPI … Read more
Weekly Points – May 17th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Let’s Look at the Data Issue
DKI stock pick, AuthID, announces 1Q revenue almost as high as all of 2023. Guidance indicates they expect quarterly revenue to double this year. They still need to announce new contracts, but the year is off to an excellent start. Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact makes a brilliant point explaining fiscal dominance. DKI illustrated the Fed’s dilemma … Read more
