5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Mines in the Strait Issue
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#PCE
GDP Meh
The market is down this morning on a worse than expected 1Q GDP estimate. GDP was reported at -0.3% which was below expectations of -0.2%. In addition, the Personal Consumption Expenditures figure came in 0.1% above expectations. While the market had a strong reaction, I don’t think this news is significant. 1) The stagflation story … Read more
Weekly Points – February 28th, 2025 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Public Recession Issue
Nvidia $NVDA has a great quarter, but the stock was priced for perfection. Still, Jensen Huang had some interesting comments on DeepSeek. There are rumors that Microsoft $MSFT is cancelling data center leases…but the big tech firms all just confirmed higher AI spending for 2025. The January PCE falls, but it won’t be enough to … Read more
Weekly Points – November 29th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Consumers Are Revolting Issue
This week presents more evidence that a weak private market economy and inflation are taking an increased toll on the American consumer. Luxury sales are falling with consumers seeking out used and discounted items. While companies like $MSFT, $GOOG, and $AMZN buy more $NVDA chips to power AI datacenters, consumers balk at buying AI-powered electronics … Read more
Weekly Points – November 1st, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Government is Misleading You Issue
All summer and fall, we saw market analysts claim the Fed won the war on inflation. This week, the Core PCE remained stubbornly high. Some claim we’re heading for stagflation. We should pay attention to that warning. 3Q GDP came in below last quarter. Even worse, this economic “growth” is really value-destroying government spending pushing … Read more
The Week in Preview
Overview: With the end of summer here and the markets closed next Monday, we’re expecting a slow news week with many market participants taking off mid-week for an extended holiday. As a result, we may choose to skip the 5 Things this week and pick that up the following week. Instead, I’ll provide you with … Read more
Weekly Points – July 26th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Earnings and Inflation Issue
We hit earnings season and with the Magnificent 7 priced for perfection, it was going to take “perfect” earnings reports to keep the market from falling. $GOOG and $TSLA showed some weakness and for the second straight week, tech leads the stock market lower. Coursera $COUR beats earnings and positions itself as an AI play … Read more
June PCE of 2.6% – Slightly Above Expectations
This morning, we got the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up 0.1% vs last month and 2.5% vs last year. The monthly number accelerated by 0.1% and the yearly declined by 0.1%; both very small changes in trend. The 2.5% annual … Read more
Macro Commentary and an Unsurprising Conclusion
DKI published a white paper in November of 2021 warning that inflation was a big and non-transitory problem. By May or June of 2022, most of the big macro strategists were already calling for Federal Reserve rate cuts despite continued high inflation. I’ve spent the past two plus years saying rate cuts would eventually come, … Read more
Weekly Points – June 28th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Let Them Eat Cake Issue
We lead off with a government official meme’ing herself. (Is meme’ing a word? Can we get a ruling by someone over the age of 25 on that?) Despite a terrible reputation as someone who doesn’t understand the impact of inflation on normal people, Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, couldn’t resist letting Americans know she thinks their … Read more
