The new CPI was a win for the disinflation crowd as the all-items inflation metric falls to 2.3%. On the other hand, we’ve been above the 2% target for 50 straight months, and I think the target is 2% too high. The market celebrated a temporary tariff truce with China as both sides agree to … Read more
Lots of Nvidia $NVDA news this week as the world’s best AI chipmaker takes a $5.5B charge due to export restrictions to China. The company has also begun production of their best chips on US soil and intends to get to half a trillion dollars of domestically-produced product in the next few years. Fed Chairman, … Read more
In 2021, Chairman Powell and Secretary Yellen said inflation was transitory. In 2023, political commentator and MMT enthusiast, Paul Krugman, said we had defeated inflation. In 2025, the PCE (the preferred inflation metric of the Fed) has made no real progress in the past year and the Core PCE is rising again. Retail investors are … Read more
This week, we got news on the new national crypto strategic reserve that first spiked the dollar price of some coins, then crashed them. The details now indicate the Bitcoin can only be bought if it doesn’t cost the taxpayer anything. It’s not clear what those circumstances might be. As DKI wrote in January, it’s … Read more
Nvidia $NVDA has a great quarter, but the stock was priced for perfection. Still, Jensen Huang had some interesting comments on DeepSeek. There are rumors that Microsoft $MSFT is cancelling data center leases…but the big tech firms all just confirmed higher AI spending for 2025. The January PCE falls, but it won’t be enough to … Read more
There’s a weird conspiracy theory going around that the Trump Administration will re-value the gold in Fort Knox and restructure the dollar. DKI thinks this is unlikely, but we do see the value in going through the idea as a thought experiment. Dell nears a massive final contract with xAI giving us another data point … Read more
President Trump and his team are energetically remaking both the Federal government and our trade relationships. The pace of change has been incredible, and depending on your political preferences, you’re either thrilled or appalled. As always, we’ll try to bring you a clear view on policy and leave the politics to others. As I write … Read more
This week presents more evidence that a weak private market economy and inflation are taking an increased toll on the American consumer. Luxury sales are falling with consumers seeking out used and discounted items. While companies like $MSFT, $GOOG, and $AMZN buy more $NVDA chips to power AI datacenters, consumers balk at buying AI-powered electronics … Read more
Each time Nvidia $NVDA reports earnings, it’s the most important earnings announcement ever. Results were fantastic, but already incorporated into market expectations leading to little stock reaction. Walmart $WMT and Target $TGT indicate the consumer is shifting to lower-priced retail. It’s yet another indication that consumers prefer a drive for lower prices over a focus … Read more
All summer and fall, we saw market analysts claim the Fed won the war on inflation. This week, the Core PCE remained stubbornly high. Some claim we’re heading for stagflation. We should pay attention to that warning. 3Q GDP came in below last quarter. Even worse, this economic “growth” is really value-destroying government spending pushing … Read more
