Overview: The Federal Reserve completed its September meeting and decided to cut the fed funds rate by 50bp (.5%). Significant items: The market knew the Fed would pivot and cut at this meeting. There was substantial debate regarding the size of the cut. I had expected 25bp (.25%). The doves in the crowd calling … Read more
President Trump talks about Bitcoin and he and some other politicians call for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Plus, we have another week of tech stock obliteration. It’s not that earnings were bad; but rather, that expectations and valuations were so high. Intel $INTC is the exception. Their earnings report was bad. We also have lots … Read more
This piece was originally published on July 11th, 2024 Overview: Today, we got the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 3.0% unadjusted in the last year and DOWN 0.1% vs last month. That’s below last month’s 3.3% and expectations of 3.1%. The 0.1% monthly decrease was below the 0.1% … Read more
The Federal Reserve completed its April meeting, and kept the fed funds rate unchanged. Your bullet points ahead of Chairman Powell’s 2:30PM press conference. The fed funds rate remains unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%. Earlier this year, most market participants expected the Fed to cut by either the January meeting or the March one. … Read more
This week, Jerome Powell spoke to Congress and was more dovish than he’s been in years. He’s gone from channeling former Fed Chairman, Volker, who crushed inflation with interest rates approaching 20% to sounding like Volker’s predecessor, Arthur Burns, who reduced interest rates before getting inflation under control. We saw weaker than expected job reports, … Read more
The Federal Reserve surprised the market by leaving the fed funds rate unchanged and indicating its not inclined to lower at the next meeting in March. The market was disappointed, but a better-than-expected manufacturing index with higher-than-expected pricing plus a seemingly hot labor market support the Fed’s decision. There was huge growth in jobs, but … Read more
For two years, Wall Street pundits and asset gatherers have been screaming for the Fed to pivot to lower interest rates. Unsurprisingly, they make more money when asset prices are high. They were doing this even as the CPI was approaching double digits and when real inflation was approaching 20%. This week, Fed Chairman, Jerome … Read more
