5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The It Just Doesn’t Matter Issue
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The 2% Target Has Been Abandoned
Overview: The Federal Reserve concluded its October meeting and as expected, lowered the fed funds rate by 25bp (.25%). The market celebrated…until Chairman Powell said that the Fed hadn’t decided to cut another 25bp in December. This caused the market to fall, but I’m not sure under what circumstances he would have said the decision … Read more
August CPI is 2.9%
Overview: Today, we got the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.9% for the last year and up 0.4% for the month (annualizes to 4.9%). The annual number is up 0.2% from July and 0.1% above expectations. The monthly is up 0.2% and 0.1% above expectations. The Core CPI … Read more
July CPI is 2.7%
Overview: Today, we got the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.7% for the last year and up 0.2% for the month (annualizes to 2.4%). The annual number is flat from June and 0.1% below expectations. The monthly is up 0.2% and consistent with expectations. The Core CPI which … Read more
The Fed, GDP, and Tariffs
The Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve concluded its July meeting and to the surprise of no one, left interest rates unchanged. I think it was the right move. The economy seems to be doing well-enough and inflation remains above the 2% target (which I continue to insist is 2% too high). DKI has been outspoken … Read more
June CPI is 2.7%
Overview: Today, we got the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.7% for the last year and up 0.3% for the month (annualizes to 3.7%). The annual number is up 0.3% from May and 0.1% above expectations. The monthly is up 0.2% and consistent with expectations. The Core CPI … Read more
May CPI is 2.4%
Overview: Today, we got the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year and up 0.1% for the month. The annual number is up 0.1% from April and in line with expectations. The monthly is down 0.1% and below expectations. The Core CPI which excludes food … Read more
Weekly Points – May 16th, 2025 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Temporary Tariff Truce Issue
The new CPI was a win for the disinflation crowd as the all-items inflation metric falls to 2.3%. On the other hand, we’ve been above the 2% target for 50 straight months, and I think the target is 2% too high. The market celebrated a temporary tariff truce with China as both sides agree to … Read more
April CPI is 2.3%
Overview: Today, we got the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.3% for the last year and up 0.2% for the month. Those are both 0.1% below expectations. The 0.2% monthly increase reverses last month’s -0.1% deflation figure. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was up 2.8% … Read more
March CPI is 2.4%
Overview: Today, we got the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year and -0.1% for the month. That’s a big decrease from last month’s 2.8%, below expectations of 2.5%, and the monthly number represents deflation. Small deflation, but it’s in the right direction. The Core … Read more
