Overview: Today, we got the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year. That’s below last month and below the 2.5% expected. The monthly change was 0.2% vs the 0.3% estimate. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was up 2.5%, consistent with expectations. The … Read more
It’s been a volatile few days. Let’s recap: The Federal Reserve: I continue to believe the market is overestimating the impact Fed Chair nominee, Warsh, could have on the economy and the markets. Last week, there was reasonable fear that Warsh would be hawkish (favoring higher interest rates). I’m skeptical of that take, despite … Read more
Quick announcement: I’ll be in Bangkok for the next few weeks. While I’m here, I’m open to a small number of in-person conversations. If you’re based locally, or know someone here you think it would be worthwhile for me to meet, feel free to reach out privately at IR@DeepKnowledgeInvesting.com. We had most of this … Read more
We got some weird price action yesterday (Thursday). Gold gyrated wildly, at one point swinging 10% in just a couple of hours. It has retreated from the $5,500 level back to $5,200 as of this writing. Silver took a break from its stratospheric rise and fell from around $120 to $111. Bitcoin plummeted to $81k … Read more
The Fed concluded its January meeting, and as expected, took no action. Most Fed Governors voted to maintain the current fed funds rate with two dissents favoring a small 25bp (.25%) cut. The market shrugged and finished flat(ish) to up small depending on your favored index. This was a reasonable reaction. Many are still … Read more
The CPI stays locked in a tight range thanks to the BLS presenting a constantly-understated version. High inflation continues regardless of the official statistics or the actions of the Fed. Chairman Powell announced that he’s being investigated causing political actors to bemoan the politization of the Fed. The Fed has always been a political institution … Read more
Overview: The Federal Reserve concluded its October meeting and as expected, lowered the fed funds rate by 25bp (.25%). The market celebrated…until Chairman Powell said that the Fed hadn’t decided to cut another 25bp in December. This caused the market to fall, but I’m not sure under what circumstances he would have said the decision … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.9% for the last year and up 0.4% for the month (annualizes to 4.9%). The annual number is up 0.2% from July and 0.1% above expectations. The monthly is up 0.2% and 0.1% above expectations. The Core CPI … Read more
