Overview: Today, we got the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year and -0.1% for the month. That’s a big decrease from last month’s 2.8%, below expectations of 2.5%, and the monthly number represents deflation. Small deflation, but it’s in the right direction. The Core … Read more
The Federal Reserve concluded its March meeting and surprised no one by keeping the fed funds rate unchanged. Let’s go through the details: As I type this, Jerome Powell is delivering his prepared remarks at his press conference and reiterated his typical language of being “data driven”. He’s also talking about a higher-than-usual level … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.8% for the last year and 0.2% for the month (annualizes to 2.4%). That’s below last month’s 3.0% and above the prior month’s 2.9%. Both the annual number and the monthly were 0.1% below expectations. The monthly was … Read more
The Federal Reserve will conclude its first meeting of 2025 later today, and Chairman Powell will hold his usual afternoon press conference. Some market observers are describing this as the least suspenseful meeting of the past three years, and I agree with them. The current consensus (almost 100%) opinion is that the Fed will leave … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.9% for the last year and 0.4% for the month (annualizes to 4.9%). That’s above last month’s 2.7% and above the prior month’s 2.6%. It was in-line with expectations. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was … Read more
The Federal Reserve just completed its final meeting of the year and as expected, cut the fed funds rate by 25bp (.25%) to 4.25% – 4.50%. This completes the last cut of the year with a total of 100bp (1%) of cuts for 2024. The release commented on elevated inflation, expanding economic activity, and an … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.6% for the last year and 0.2% for the month. That’s above last month’s 2.4% and in-line with expectations. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was up 3.3% vs last year and up 0.3% from last … Read more
The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 25bp (.25%). This was expected and the stock market isn’t reacting. Futures markets indicate an expectation for another 25bp cut in December. That also reflects no change from prior expectations. The Powell press conference begins in 15 minutes. Information contained in this report, and in … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.9% for the last year and 0.2% for the month. That’s below last month’s 3.0% and expectations of 3.0%. The 0.2% monthly increase was in line with the 0.2% expected, and a bigger increase vs last month’s -0.1%. … Read more
The PPI stands for Producer Price Index. The reason it’s important as a measure of inflation, is generally, producers see an increase in prices first. When those producers pass on price increases to consumers, we then see that as inflation reflected in a higher CPI (consumer price index) or PCE (personal consumption expenditures). I’ve been … Read more
