#federalreserve

Powell Stays on Message

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This piece was originally published on August 25th, 2023. Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, spoke in Jackson Hole today. Here are my notes on the speech with some additional commentary: Quickly said there’s a “long way to go” to get inflation under control. (DKI:  He’s telling investors the “pivot” to lower rates isn’t coming anytime soon.) … Read more

Higher for Longer – Again

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This piece was originally published on August 16th, 2023. Earlier this week, we got retail sales data indicating the US consumer continues to spend without pause. Today, we got to see the minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting where they wrote: “With inflation still well above the Committee’s longer-run goal and the labor … Read more

Are We in a Recession Already?

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This piece originally appeared on August 10, 2023. There’s been a lot of hope and enthusiasm in the press and the stock market for a “soft-landing”. The idea is that the Federal Reserve may be able to start to bring down interest rates at just the right time and avoid a recession. Supporting that point … Read more

Is the VIX Lying to Us?

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This is an excerpt from the DKI July letter: The VIX is an index that measures market expectations for volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. The index tends to have a skew in it because investors are much more concerned about downwards volatility than upwards volatility. As a result, we’ll typically … Read more

Higher for Longer:

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This is an excerpt from the DKI July letter:   Over a year ago, the “pivot people” started calling for the Fed to pivot to lower rates. At the time and for the past year, DKI has said that we were nowhere near a pivot and that we expect the Fed to continue raising. Shortly … Read more

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