More than a year ago, I stopped writing about the employment numbers. In some ways, there is nothing more important to the economy than the number of people gaining or losing jobs. The reason I stopped was the “data” was clearly being faked. Month after month, we saw great job growth on the day of … Read more
This is an excerpt from the DKI July letter: Last month, we wrote this: DKI has been highlighting inconsistent economic data since last November. However, recent news has put that trend on steroids. The ISM Manufacturing Index and the Purchasing Managers’ Index are both showing contraction/recessionary indicators. Demand for goods is weak. Lumber pricing … Read more
All year, the market has been trading off of small differences between macro economic statistics and expectations. One theme we’ve emphasized in 2022 is that government statistics do not represent reality; but rather, are generated by government employees to advance a specific narrative. This happens under both Republican and Democratic administrations as no one wants … Read more
