Most of this week’s 5 Things relates to government mismanagement of the economy. We draw two conclusions. First, the government should involve itself in less of the economy. Second, we should have called this “The Government is Mismanaging Things Edition”. One month after DKI told you the Fed cut rates too soon, the Core CPI … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year and 0.2% for the month. That’s slightly below last month’s 2.5% and above expectations by 0.1%. The 0.2% monthly increase was above the 0.1% expected. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy … Read more
The long-awaited pivot is here. The Federal Reserve is going to cut the fed funds rate this week. Asset gatherers celebrate the opportunity to blow up another asset bubble. The rest of the country should prepare for more misery-causing inflation. Russia talks about limiting exports of uranium during a multi-year supply shortage. Multiple people pinged … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.5% for the last year and 0.3% for the month. That’s below last month’s 2.9% and consistent with expectations. The 0.3% monthly increase was above the 0.2% expected, and a bigger increase than last month’s 0.2%. The Core … Read more
The big news this week was the lower-than-expected CPI and PPI figures for July. While expectations for a September 50bp (0.5%) rate cut by the Fed changes on a daily basis, DKI agrees with current consensus that we’ll see a 25bp cut next month. We believe that’s premature and unwise, but still think that’s what’s … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.9% for the last year and 0.2% for the month. That’s below last month’s 3.0% and expectations of 3.0%. The 0.2% monthly increase was in line with the 0.2% expected, and a bigger increase vs last month’s -0.1%. … Read more
At the same time the Bank of Japan caused panic and traders began to unwind the carry trade, something DKI has been talking about since October of 2022, multiple retail trading platforms failed. It might be a good time to hedge your portfolio, or have some assets outside the financial system (or both). Last week, … Read more
When I was growing up in the Detroit area, the Zoo there did a famous commercial where the animals were getting ready to go “on stage” for the opening. At one point, all the monkeys ran to the right encouraged by one in the front saying “Ok guys, this way”. Then, all the monkeys ran … Read more
This piece was originally published on July 11th, 2024 Overview: Today, we got the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 3.0% unadjusted in the last year and DOWN 0.1% vs last month. That’s below last month’s 3.3% and expectations of 3.1%. The 0.1% monthly decrease was below the 0.1% … Read more
I wish I were making this up, but Jerome Powell actually acknowledged the Fed doesn’t have high confidence in its own forecasts. In fairness, we don’t have confidence in their forecasts either. DKI pointed that out in a recent monthly letter where we detailed how inaccurate even near-term Fed forecasts have been. Past that, there … Read more
