Quick announcement: I’ll be in Siem Reap, Cambodia for the next couple of weeks. While I’m here, I’m open to a small number of in-person conversations. If you’re based locally, or know someone here you think it would be worthwhile for me to meet, feel free to reach out privately at IR@DeepKnowledgeInvesting.com. Also, I was … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year. That’s below last month and below the 2.5% expected. The monthly change was 0.2% vs the 0.3% estimate. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was up 2.5%, consistent with expectations. The … Read more
Quick announcement: I’ll be in Bangkok for the next few weeks. While I’m here, I’m open to a small number of in-person conversations. If you’re based locally, or know someone here you think it would be worthwhile for me to meet, feel free to reach out privately at IR@DeepKnowledgeInvesting.com. We had most of this … Read more
The CPI stays locked in a tight range thanks to the BLS presenting a constantly-understated version. High inflation continues regardless of the official statistics or the actions of the Fed. Chairman Powell announced that he’s being investigated causing political actors to bemoan the politization of the Fed. The Fed has always been a political institution … Read more
The December CPI was announced yesterday. Normally, I do an immediate detailed analysis. That made sense when wildly fluctuating inflation metrics had a real impact on what the Fed was going to do. I see the data as less valuable and timely right now. The December CPI was 2.7% with the Core CPI at 2.6%. … Read more
We got an estimated CPI that shows inflation has slowed. The market loved seeing that, but I still think inflation is too high. Plus, do any of you think the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated a low CPI? Me either. Oil prices continue to fall. Efforts to embargo Russian oil have failed. DKI predicted this … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.7% for the last year. There was no October report due to the government shutdown so there will be no monthly comparisons in this piece. The annual number is down 0.3% from the September report and 0.4% below … Read more
Overview: The Federal Reserve concluded its October meeting and as expected, lowered the fed funds rate by 25bp (.25%). The market celebrated…until Chairman Powell said that the Fed hadn’t decided to cut another 25bp in December. This caused the market to fall, but I’m not sure under what circumstances he would have said the decision … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 3.0% for the last year and up 0.3% for the month (annualizes to 3.7%). The annual number is up 0.1% from August and 0.1% below expectations. The monthly is up 0.3% and 0.1% below expectations. The Core CPI … Read more
