The US figures out that our foreign policy is subject to CCP approval and works out a deal with Australia to develop rare earth mining and refining assets. China responds by ceasing soybean purchases from the US. All of this is creating discomfort in multiple places, but how dependent do you want to be on … Read more
$AMD offers stock and chips to OpenAI in an effort to break $NVDA’s near-monopoly status. DKI wonders where we’re going to get the electricity supply to power all those chips. Gold crosses $4k on the way to a new all-time high. Or as we like to put it: Gold is staying stable while the dollar … Read more
This week, we got a lower-than-expected CPI. Hooray, the Fed will cut! Then, we got a higher-than-expected PPI. Oh no, the Fed can’t cut! There’s some evidence that tariffs are raising prices for now, but not nearly as bad as the fiat economist threatened. The US puts a 15% tariff on $NVDA and $AMD chip … Read more
President Trump fires the head of the BLS. We immediately get performative complaining that the integrity of the BLS and the government data collection process is being threatened and politicized. Somehow, the “integrity” crowd ignores the fact that last year, there were two 800k plus revisions and we just had a 258k revision. Firing the … Read more
The US and the EU reached a trade deal that was a one-sided adjustment in favor of the US. Somehow, reporters keep failing to mention the continent’s previous trade barriers against the US and the resulting large trade deficit. The Fed stays on “pause” an unpopular move, but I agree with them, or at least … Read more
The new CPI was a win for the disinflation crowd as the all-items inflation metric falls to 2.3%. On the other hand, we’ve been above the 2% target for 50 straight months, and I think the target is 2% too high. The market celebrated a temporary tariff truce with China as both sides agree to … Read more
In 2021, Chairman Powell and Secretary Yellen said inflation was transitory. In 2023, political commentator and MMT enthusiast, Paul Krugman, said we had defeated inflation. In 2025, the PCE (the preferred inflation metric of the Fed) has made no real progress in the past year and the Core PCE is rising again. Retail investors are … Read more
All summer and fall, we saw market analysts claim the Fed won the war on inflation. This week, the Core PCE remained stubbornly high. Some claim we’re heading for stagflation. We should pay attention to that warning. 3Q GDP came in below last quarter. Even worse, this economic “growth” is really value-destroying government spending pushing … Read more
This was a fascinating week featuring political shifts, increased market volatility, and a week-long drop in the stock prices of the mega-cap tech leaders that have been supporting the equity market indexes the past couple of years. This week, we’re focused on higher retail sales and wondering if anything will slow the consumer. Higher jobless … Read more
