For two years, Wall Street pundits and asset gatherers have been screaming for the Fed to pivot to lower interest rates. Unsurprisingly, they make more money when asset prices are high. They were doing this even as the CPI was approaching double digits and when real inflation was approaching 20%. This week, Fed Chairman, Jerome … Read more
Ok – kind of a quirky title, but a lot of smart people were saying smart things in public this week. Peter Schiff made an excellent point in favor of property rights including for Bitcoin which he hates. Moody’s is late, but correct on a potential China downgrade. Las Vegas Sands ($LVS) took advantage of … Read more
While Americans are focused on our own coming (and just passed) elections, Argentina had a monumental event. Using national ID and paper ballots, they were able to get votes counted the same night and found that a small-government capitalist in favor of sound money had won a huge and shocking victory. Here in the US, … Read more
The Disinflation/Deflation Issue We got lots of macro news this week featuring lower levels of inflation (disinflation) and in some cases, lower prices (deflation). Long-term, DKI continues to believe that excessive Congressional spending and the ensuing currency creation (dollar printing) will lead to long-term inflation and long-term higher interest rates. For now, there is increasing … Read more
Robb Fahrion and I discuss the 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Disinflation / Deflation Issue. Let me know what you think about the format.
The More Problems in Sovereign Debt Issue We’re looking at massive worldwide sovereign debt problems. The Bank of Japan decided to stop defending the 1% rate ceiling on its 10-year bond to stop further weakness in the yen. Not to be outdone, the US Treasury announces plans for trillions of dollars of new bond auctions. … Read more
The Non-Correlated Issue The stock market is falling with the S&P 500 now down more than 10% from its 2023 high. Investors are starting to realize that “higher for longer” now includes inflation and government spending. Bond yields are rising despite the Fed signaling they’re done hiking for now. GDP is high, but misleading. Investors … Read more
The Bond Vigilantes Issue Fed Chairman, Powell, implied the Fed was done raising the fed funds rate for now partly because longer-term yields were rising. Excessive Congressional spending is now driving inflation and higher Treasury yields instead of actions by the Federal Reserve. Politicians in Argentina refuse to learn the lesson of how modern monetary … Read more
The Chutzpah Issue Chutzpah is a Yiddish word that loosely translates to a combination of gall, obnoxious assumptions, and courage. There’s an old saying that the definition of chutzpah is killing your parents and begging the judge for leniency because you’re an orphan. I also like the way Futurama “explained” it. In this week’s 5 … Read more
The Things That Aren’t an Issue Issue The market is deep into over-reacting to surface analysis mode. Stock prices are responding to news no one will remember in 5 days or to data that’s going to be revised out of meaning next month. In this special issue of the 5 Things, we’re going to focus … Read more
