Published to the Deep Knowledge Investing blog on November 3rd, 2024. I have been writing less about the macro-economic environment lately. That’s been for two reasons. The primary one is in 2022 and through much of 2023, it was macro considerations that were driving the market. Understanding what was happening with inflation and the Federal … Read more
We’ve now entered earnings season. Las Vegas Sands $LVS misses the headline numbers, but looking a bit deeper, it was a great quarter. Starbucks $SBUX misses badly. DKI thinks they’re focused on too many things that don’t affect the customer experience. Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller are avoiding owning bonds joining DKI in our … Read more
Central banks shatter irony meters as a Fed Governor insists they have unlimited dollars, but it’s Bitcoin that has no value. Not to be outdone, the European Central Bank lowers interest rates and at the same time, warns of coming higher inflation. They’d be better off admitting they’re trapped than saying nonsensical things in public. … Read more
Most of this week’s 5 Things relates to government mismanagement of the economy. We draw two conclusions. First, the government should involve itself in less of the economy. Second, we should have called this “The Government is Mismanaging Things Edition”. One month after DKI told you the Fed cut rates too soon, the Core CPI … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year and 0.2% for the month. That’s slightly below last month’s 2.5% and above expectations by 0.1%. The 0.2% monthly increase was above the 0.1% expected. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy … Read more
Hi All, The CPI will be announced at 8:30 Eastern Time today. I’ll have full analysis out on that this morning, but with intern Andrew traveling, will need an extra few minutes to update the graphs. As a result, the update won’t be out before we send the 9am email. For those of you who … Read more
Bank of America $BAC has an outage with customers showing balances of zero. The customers are horrified. Want to know why the Bitcoin community finds this hilarious? The answer is hubris. Japan communicates it is dedicated to keeping ultra-low interest rates. The yen predictably declines again. Costco $COST made a fortune selling gold bars. Now … Read more
The theme in the markets this week was all about increasing government control of the economy and the money supply. The Chinese government poured liquidity into their banking and housing sectors causing equity markets all over the world to rise. There’s new evidence that the government intentionally and unnecessarily killed Silvergate bank. We explain why … Read more
Years ago, President Trump talked about a change in tax rates that he described as “big league”. It was misinterpreted as “bigly” and a new word entered the lexicon. Last week, the Fed pivoted and cut the fed funds rate. This cut was more than two years after Fed doves and asset gatherers started begging … Read more
Overview: The Federal Reserve completed its September meeting and decided to cut the fed funds rate by 50bp (.5%). Significant items: The market knew the Fed would pivot and cut at this meeting. There was substantial debate regarding the size of the cut. I had expected 25bp (.25%). The doves in the crowd calling … Read more
