Overview: Today, we got the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.9% for the last year and 0.4% for the month (annualizes to 4.9%). That’s above last month’s 2.7% and above the prior month’s 2.6%. It was in-line with expectations. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was … Read more
This week, there was a lot of focus on potential financial stress. We’re seeing higher credit card delinquencies, higher commercial real estate delinquencies, and an increasing reticence of foreign central banks to hold more dollars. Despite Fed rate cuts, both housing prices and mortgage rates have continued to rise making homes even more unaffordable. Estimates … Read more
Hi All, Lots of thoughts on my mind. Here’s the upcoming posting schedule: Wednesday (today): The monthly CPI report. I expect to have this out around the 9:30am market open, but after the 9am DKI notification email. For those of you who don’t want to wait a day, please check the blog around 9:30 today. … Read more
One issue I’ve spent a lot of time discussing with people over the past few months is the recent increase in bond yields. In mid-September, the 10-year Treasury was yielding 3.61%. Despite (or because of) 100bp of Fed rate cuts, the yield on that same security is now up to 4.67%. Some market observers are … Read more
Happy New Year to everyone. We’re going to kick off 2025 by re-releasing an expanded and improved version of our 2021 white paper where we challenged Nassim Taleb’s assertion that Bitcoin was worth zero. The official release will be on Twitter/X in the middle of the week. We’re asking everyone to like and repost so … Read more
I’m writing this from Bangkok, Thailand where for the first time in all my travels, I’ve gotten sick. Other than the occasional case of travelers’ diarrhea, my friends have laughed and marveled at the fact that I would be out in crowds, on packed subway trains, in sold-out soccer stadiums, and Peruvian salsa clubs and … Read more
In a week of silly and contradictory headlines, the Federal Reserve takes the top spot. The world’s premiere central bank managed to lower the fed funds rate into increasing inflation while reducing future rate hike expectations. Every month, they appear more political. After a month of reporting on weak consumer sales in high-priced discretionary items, … Read more
