The Fed Just Gave You the Plan for the Year (As of Now)
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Market Commentary
The Cause of Inflation
This post originally appeared on April 12, 2023. DKI has written constantly about inflation since November of 2021 when we warned that it was going to be a bigger and more persistent problem than most people thought. We also provided practical specific ideas for how to protect your portfolio. By January of 2022, we were … Read more
March CPI is 5.0%
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Mixed Signals
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5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – April 7th, 2023
Are We Turning the Corner Yet? Well, it’s Complicated. I’d like to start this week’s “5 Things” with a personal note. DKI intern, Dylan Kogan, will be moving on to focus on final exams and his first big post-graduation job. (100% success rate for DKI interns!) He started by helping with the “5 Things” graphs … Read more
The Petrodollar is Dying
This post originally appeared on April 6, 2023 DKI has covered the decline of the petrodollar more than a dozen times in the last year. Most notably, I gave an hour-long lecture at the Institute for World Politics explaining how the anti-Russian sanctions were not hurting the Russians; but rather, destroying the value of the … Read more
Fed Governor, Mester Confirms DKI Analysis and Market Disagrees With Her
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Notes on Today’s Trading
This post originally appeared on April 3, 2023 Market Giving Up Friday’s Gains: Yesterday, we published a piece concluding that the market may have misinterpreted Friday’s PCE report. The NASDAQ, which is more sensitive to interest rate changes than other major indexes, has given up half of Friday’s gains as of the time of this … Read more
Market Reaction to Friday’s PCE Report May Have Been Wrong
This post originally appeared on April 2, 2023 PCE Rockets Market: On Friday, we got the new PCE report. That stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures and it’s the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. While it doesn’t get the same attention as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), it’s probably more important in determining … Read more
Weekly Points – March 31st, 2023 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week
Insight into the Newly Acquired SIVB, Consumer Confidence is Up, Alibaba Splits into Six Units, and PCE Cools (sort of). This week we witnessed the end of Silicon Valley Bank’s story, but also got new insight into what led it to fail earlier this month thanks to testimony from Fed Governor Michael Barr. There was … Read more
