This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. How Overspending Creates Inflation: Right now, the US Congress is running a $2 trillion annual deficit. That’s the on-balance sheet number, and the one we see associated with the $33 trillion national debt. When you include off-balance … Read more
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Introduction: During inflationary times, and especially when we have high employment and growing GDP, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to reduce inflation. Raising interest rates is a crude tool, but historically, an effective one. Now, some … Read more
Hi All, I’ve been getting some excellent questions from subscribers. Besides being smart questions, they help me understand what has your focus and where you want and need more help. I’ve also heard from some that they don’t understand everything I write here. I have two jobs. The first one is to come up with … Read more
The Higher for Longer Again Issue Lots of interesting news this week where we address these important questions: Was this the most hawkish “pause” ever by Jerome Powell? Will reduced Russian refining capacity cause the price of oil to rise even more? Will rising energy prices continue to crush disinflation? Can rate hikes produce … Read more
This piece was originally published on September 21th, 2023. After oil prices rose to their highest level this year, the sell-side decided to raise price targets. Bank of America thinks crude prices could go above $100 this year. Brent crude is already up from the low $70s to almost $94 today. JP Morgan is “predicting” … Read more
This piece was originally published on September 20th, 2023. The Federal Reserve completed their September meeting and as expected, kept the fed funds rate unchanged. The “surprise” was in the dot plot. The dot plot is where each Fed Governor indicates where they expect rates to be at various points in the future. It further … Read more
The Un-Disinflation Issue Lots of interesting news this week where we address these important questions: With the CPI rising again, is disinflation dead for now? With the PPI above expectations, is disinflation dead for now? Is the Fed responsible for our “terrible” economy? Have they overtightened? Should the new ARM IPO price ABOVE $NVDA? Powell … Read more
