CPI Analysis Out This Morning
CPI was announced 15 minutes ago and came in above expectations. Full analysis will be up on the blog this morning, but after the 9am email. Please check here shortly – thank you.
Market Commentary
Weekly Points – February 2nd, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Surprise Higher for Longer Issue
The Federal Reserve surprised the market by leaving the fed funds rate unchanged and indicating its not inclined to lower at the next meeting in March. The market was disappointed, but a better-than-expected manufacturing index with higher-than-expected pricing plus a seemingly hot labor market support the Fed’s decision. There was huge growth in jobs, but … Read more
Federal Reserve Shocks Market by Doing Exactly What They Said They’d Do
The Federal Reserve concluded its January meeting by deciding to keep the fed funds rate unchanged. There have been times in the last couple of months where the market put a 60% – 70% probability of a January rate cut. DKI has insisted all along that while we’ve hit the terminal rate (the highest fed … Read more
Weekly Points – January 26th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Super-Duper Inconsistent Data Issue
Every week in January, we’ve been pointing out the inconsistencies we see in macro-economic data. The trend becomes even more pronounced this week with contradictory insight on the economy being provided by the GDP report, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, and the purchasing manager’s index. The results are so confusing that commentary by S&P Global … Read more
4Q ’23 GDP is Excellent – Sort of…
The first estimate of 4Q GDP came out this morning. Growth of 3.3% was well above expectations of 2%. As usual, we’ll go through a couple of adjustments. DKI adjusts for change in private inventories because it reflects inventory stocking or de-stocking as opposed to actual economic activity. 4Q inventory additions were only .07% which … Read more
Weekly Points – January 19th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The More Inconsistent Data Issue
Like last week, we’re seeing more inconsistent data. The retail sales number indicates a strong economy and a “higher for longer” Federal Reserve. The new manufacturing data indicates a weakening economy and a “pivot now” Fed. The most likely result is the Fed doing nothing for now. Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM) guidance moves the market. And … Read more
Weekly Points – January 12th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Bitcoin ETF Issue
After years of dragging its feet and losing an important Court case, the SEC finally approved 11 Bitcoin ETFs. Along the way, it managed to accidentally pre-announce the approvals three different ways, then withdrew all of them. Finally, the head of the SEC made it clear he disagreed with the decision of his own agency … Read more
3 Speaking Engagements This Week
Hi All, Some interesting conversations taking place this week. On Wednesday, at 11am Eastern Time, I’m doing a Twitter Space with Tracy (@ChiGirl) and Jack Farley (@JackFarley96). We’ll be discussing the macro environment. Please join us here: https://twitter.com/MicDropMarkets/status/1746608890962219244 On Thursday, Michael Gayed is doing an all day event sponsored by Hashdex featuring some of the … Read more
December CPI is 3.4%
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Weekly Points – December 22nd, 2023 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Panic Issue
GDP was revised down, but is still at a high level due largely to massive Congressional overspending. FedEx provides a warning about future demand which is then confirmed by November’s PCE data. The Philly Fed shows a massive decline in new orders. Even retail powerhouse, Nike ($NKE) had a bad quarter and gave disappointing forward … Read more
