I Don’t Know
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Market Commentary
An Adventure
If you had a year to work from anywhere, where would you go? What would you do? What ideas would you want to explore. What skills or personal practices would you want to improve? For me, these are not hypothetical questions. Regular DKI readers know of my love of travel. I am very fortunate to … Read more
GDP Meh
The market is down this morning on a worse than expected 1Q GDP estimate. GDP was reported at -0.3% which was below expectations of -0.2%. In addition, the Personal Consumption Expenditures figure came in 0.1% above expectations. While the market had a strong reaction, I don’t think this news is significant. 1) The stagflation story … Read more
Weekly Points – April 25th, 2025 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Correlation Issue
For the past few years, we’ve all heard that Bitcoin is just a high-beta proxy for the NASDAQ. It seemed to make sense, but what does the data say? We look at whether Bitcoin and gold are really uncorrelated assets. Investors have been complaining that the dollar is falling. DKI thinks that depends on your … Read more
Weekly Points – April 18th, 2025 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Double Nvidia Issue
Lots of Nvidia $NVDA news this week as the world’s best AI chipmaker takes a $5.5B charge due to export restrictions to China. The company has also begun production of their best chips on US soil and intends to get to half a trillion dollars of domestically-produced product in the next few years. Fed Chairman, … Read more
Weekly Points – April 11th, 2025 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Tariffs for One Issue
The big news of the week was President Trump delaying tariff implementation for 90 days, a possibility I outlined for DKI subscribers the previous Sunday. Tariffs remain in place for China which responded with public insults and by increasing their own tariffs. They threatened to watch fewer Hollywood films, something I expect is of zero … Read more
March CPI is 2.4%
Overview: Today, we got the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year and -0.1% for the month. That’s a big decrease from last month’s 2.8%, below expectations of 2.5%, and the monthly number represents deflation. Small deflation, but it’s in the right direction. The Core … Read more
Everybody Hold On – Second Edition
Last month, I got a number of requests to address the emotional difficulty of owning stocks through periods of extreme stress. I thought it was an important enough topic that I wrote a long piece to address the issue called Everybody Hold On. If you are a DKI premium subscriber, I’m asking you to re-read … Read more
Weekly Points – April 4th, 2025 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Tariff Issue
The big news of the week was President Trump announcing tariffs in excess of what the market expected. Equity indexes immediately fell and continued that trend for the following two days. While most of the commentary was negative, I’m not convinced the approved consensus is correct. The short version is in this edition of the … Read more
Balanced Trade – Guest Post by Alex Macris
Today, we welcome back our most frequent guest poster, Alex Macris. Over the past week, we’ve all seen the mainstream media analysis and FinX hysteria screaming that President Trump has no idea what he’s doing as he intentionally destroys the economy with poorly thought-out tariffs. Last week, DKI asked the question, “Tariffs – What if … Read more
