Hi All, Good news. As promised, we’ve implemented a new meeting feature. I’ve opened up two 30 minute slots every Monday starting after the coming holiday weekend. These are private Zoom meetings to discuss whatever is on your mind. Flying V’s Kashif has worked some cool magic here so if you’re a DKI Premium Subscriber … Read more
Chairman Powell leans dovish in his annual remarks causing risk assets including Bitcoin, gold, equities, and energy to trade up sharply. DKI disagrees with the (potential) decision to cut rates, but still profits from it. The White House will be pleased, but don’t expect the President to start praising Powell in public. Copper tariffs are … Read more
This week, we got a lower-than-expected CPI. Hooray, the Fed will cut! Then, we got a higher-than-expected PPI. Oh no, the Fed can’t cut! There’s some evidence that tariffs are raising prices for now, but not nearly as bad as the fiat economist threatened. The US puts a 15% tariff on $NVDA and $AMD chip … Read more
Bitcoin is an asset with no cash flows, no interest payments, and no fundamentals. That means explanations for short-term volatility are often little more than guesses. However, this time, there is an easy explanation for the volatility of the recent few weeks. In general, Bitcoin and gold tend to experience higher dollar prices when the … Read more
President Trump fires the head of the BLS. We immediately get performative complaining that the integrity of the BLS and the government data collection process is being threatened and politicized. Somehow, the “integrity” crowd ignores the fact that last year, there were two 800k plus revisions and we just had a 258k revision. Firing the … Read more
Overview: Today, we got the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.7% for the last year and up 0.2% for the month (annualizes to 2.4%). The annual number is flat from June and 0.1% below expectations. The monthly is up 0.2% and consistent with expectations. The Core CPI which … Read more
Hi All, I’m excited to update you on some new DKI features that are on the way. – I think the AI revolution is real and that it will have a huge impact on our lives. It’s no longer just a toy to make funny pictures and silly poems. We’ll be adding a new member … Read more
Federal Reserve Governor, Kugler, resigned early, and President Trump has the opportunity to select her predecessor. The President will also be able to replace Chairman Powell when his term expires next May. As usual, FinX (Formerly FinTwit) and the financial press are losing their minds that President Trump has the opportunity to select the people … Read more
The US and the EU reached a trade deal that was a one-sided adjustment in favor of the US. Somehow, reporters keep failing to mention the continent’s previous trade barriers against the US and the resulting large trade deficit. The Fed stays on “pause” an unpopular move, but I agree with them, or at least … Read more
The Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve concluded its July meeting and to the surprise of no one, left interest rates unchanged. I think it was the right move. The economy seems to be doing well-enough and inflation remains above the 2% target (which I continue to insist is 2% too high). DKI has been outspoken … Read more
