LVS Update
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Yet Another Reason You Shouldn’t Trust Sell-Side Research
Please feel free to check out today’s Twitter thread on sell-side research which touches on predictions for 2023 made here at DKI. The key point is that big bank economists are predicting a recession while the “analysts” at those same big banks are projecting earnings and revenue growth for the S&P 500 this year. If … Read more
The Depth Report – 2022 Headlines are all Terrible Unless You’re a DKI Subscriber
Introduction: Last July, we wrote a mid-year piece commenting on all the doom and gloom in the financial press. We constantly saw headlines saying 2022 was the worst first half for stock and/or bond markets since decades ago. We responded at the time that we had told DKI subscribers to short the market the first … Read more
Government Statistics Are Lies
All year, the market has been trading off of small differences between macro economic statistics and expectations. One theme we’ve emphasized in 2022 is that government statistics do not represent reality; but rather, are generated by government employees to advance a specific narrative. This happens under both Republican and Democratic administrations as no one wants … Read more
PCE and $LVS
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The Depth Report – Update on the Market, the Economy, and the Fed – Part IV
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The Depth Report – Update on the Market, the Economy, and the Fed – Part III
Introduction: In Part I and Part II, we covered several aspects of Inflation/CPI. It’s the single most important financial issue for 2022 so we explored the topic in depth. Cutting to the end, a combination of higher interest rates, comparisons with last year’s high CPI, and falling real estate and auto prices will ensure the … Read more
Japanese Debt – We’re Taking a Victory Lap
We told you last night that Japan was throwing in the towel on its (approximately) zero interest rates and was raising rates to defend the yen. I read today that earlier this month, Morgan Stanley had predicted that Japan would hold the line on its debt through all of 2023. While it’s hard to make … Read more
Japan Throwing in the Towel – Changes Policy
The Bank of Japan just changed its policy on interest rates. The institution is using careful language, but we’re going to shortcut it for you here. They’re raising interest rates in order to defend the yen. The BoJ had previously held the line on negative/zero interest rates which was hurting the value of the yen, … Read more
The Depth Report – Update on the Market, the Economy, and the Fed – Part II
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