CPI Preview
September CPI comes in at 3.7% which was above expectations. I’m updating the charts and will have a full update for subscribers this morning. Please check back – should have it done before the open.
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – Epilogue
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Epilogue: There’s no avoiding the fact that US government liabilities are already at a level that can’t be paid, and Congress is going to continue spending us further into bankruptcy (super-bankruptcy?). I want to provide some clarity … Read more
5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – October 6th, 2023
The Things That Aren’t an Issue Issue The market is deep into over-reacting to surface analysis mode. Stock prices are responding to news no one will remember in 5 days or to data that’s going to be revised out of meaning next month. In this special issue of the 5 Things, we’re going to focus … Read more
Israel, Energy, and Some Things That Might Not Be True
This piece was originally published on October 10th, 2023. In yesterday’s post, I mentioned the old saying that “in times of war, the first casualty is the truth”. There are a lot of interesting theories being discussed regarding the war in Israel. At this point, it’s too early to tell what’s real and what’s speculation, … Read more
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – Conclusion
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Conclusion: Right now, the Federal Reserve is doing the right thing. Inflation is a long-term problem, and sticky services inflation combined with rising energy prices mean the disinflation story is dead for now. Raising interest rates is … Read more
Israel at War – Implications for the Market
This piece was originally published on October 9th, 2023. Introduction: Over the weekend Hamas attacked Israel killing and kidnapping hundreds, or possibly, thousands. Israel has declared war and has begun a counter-attack. As usual, DKI will focus on policy and the market/economic implications of events, and as much as possible, will leave the politics to … Read more
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – The Question I Can’t Answer is Timing
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. The Question I Can’t Answer is Timing: I think we can all agree that as we close in on $250 trillion of obligations that this can’t possibly be paid. There is no level of taxation or asset … Read more
Interesting Update on a Portfolio Company
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Counter-Intuitive Inflation – How Rate Hikes Can Be Inflationary and Why It’s Different This Time
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. How Rate Hikes Can Be Inflationary and Why It’s Different This Time: What we’ve shown above is how overspending leads to inflation, and that the US government has no plans to curtail spending. For now, that includes … Read more
Counter-Intuitive Inflation – Uncontrollable Spending Leads to an Unsolvable Problem
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Uncontrollable Spending Leads to an Unsolvable Problem: There are three huge parts to the US Government’s budget. Right now, there is no appetite to cut military spending, but that’s going to happen in the future. The remaining … Read more
