Federal Reserve Meeting Commentary

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The Federal Reserve completed its July meeting today. As usual, they put out a press release and Chairman Powell had a press conference. A few bullet points to understand the situation: – The Fed kept rates unchanged for now. This was expected. – The language surrounding employment gains, the unemployment rate, and inflation was softened … Read more

June PCE of 2.6% – Slightly Above Expectations

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This morning, we got the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up 0.1% vs last month and 2.5% vs last year. The monthly number accelerated by 0.1% and the yearly declined by 0.1%; both very small changes in trend. The 2.5% annual … Read more

Macro Commentary and an Unsurprising Conclusion

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DKI published a white paper in November of 2021 warning that inflation was a big and non-transitory problem. By May or June of 2022, most of the big macro strategists were already calling for Federal Reserve rate cuts despite continued high inflation. I’ve spent the past two plus years saying rate cuts would eventually come, … Read more

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