As noted earlier, there won’t be a long 10 page CPI analysis this month. Your bullet points:
– CPI of 3.3% was below the 3.4% expected and far above last month’s 2.4%.
– Core CPI of 2.6% was below the 2.7% expected and above last month’s 2.5%.
– All items CPI was up 0.9% m/m (that’s huge) and the Core CPI was up 0.2% (highish but reasonable).
– Food was up 2.7% and was flat m/m. Food away from home was up 3.8% and that doesn’t include the attempts to shame people into tipping 40% at self-service places.
– Energy up 12.5% and up 10.9% vs last month. Gasoline up 21% vs last month and fuel oil was up 31% vs last month. This is the whole story here. The good news is this is not a surprise. Last month, I wrote that this price spike was coming. It was easy to see and every other analyst and economist saw the same thing. That’s why this month’s estimates were so accurate despite the volatility.
– New vehicles up 0.5% and used vehicle prices down 3.2%. These trends have been stable for months.
– Services up 3.0%. This is still sticky led by a 3.0% increase in shelter. 75% of the all-items increase was due to energy while much of the rest relates to shelter (again).
– Yet again, no big spike in durable goods prices despite people still talking about year-old tariffs.
– No change in the outlook. The Fed will likely stand pat and the dot plot will remain more hawkish than it was at the beginning of the year.
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