This piece was originally published on October 13th, 2023. I got a great question today from DKI reader, Eric, who correctly pointed out that it appeared I was claiming that Russian refining difficulties could lead to lower crude prices. The relevant paragraph is from the Energy section of today’s CPI post. I’ve re-read it, and … Read more
This piece was originally published on October 12th, 2023. For the past two years, the financial world has focused on the actions of the Federal Reserve, wondering when they’d pause rate hikes or pivot to lower rates. While the Fed has an enormous amount of power, they only control the very short end of the … Read more
September CPI comes in at 3.7% which was above expectations. I’m updating the charts and will have a full update for subscribers this morning. Please check back – should have it done before the open.
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Epilogue: There’s no avoiding the fact that US government liabilities are already at a level that can’t be paid, and Congress is going to continue spending us further into bankruptcy (super-bankruptcy?). I want to provide some clarity … Read more
The Things That Aren’t an Issue Issue The market is deep into over-reacting to surface analysis mode. Stock prices are responding to news no one will remember in 5 days or to data that’s going to be revised out of meaning next month. In this special issue of the 5 Things, we’re going to focus … Read more
This piece was originally published on October 10th, 2023. In yesterday’s post, I mentioned the old saying that “in times of war, the first casualty is the truth”. There are a lot of interesting theories being discussed regarding the war in Israel. At this point, it’s too early to tell what’s real and what’s speculation, … Read more
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. Conclusion: Right now, the Federal Reserve is doing the right thing. Inflation is a long-term problem, and sticky services inflation combined with rising energy prices mean the disinflation story is dead for now. Raising interest rates is … Read more
This piece was originally published on October 9th, 2023. Introduction: Over the weekend Hamas attacked Israel killing and kidnapping hundreds, or possibly, thousands. Israel has declared war and has begun a counter-attack. As usual, DKI will focus on policy and the market/economic implications of events, and as much as possible, will leave the politics to … Read more
This is an excerpt from Counter-Intuitive Inflation. We’ll be posting sections over the first two weeks of October. The Question I Can’t Answer is Timing: I think we can all agree that as we close in on $250 trillion of obligations that this can’t possibly be paid. There is no level of taxation or asset … Read more
