Inflation
Weekly Points – March 15th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Stagflation and Doom Issue
This wasn’t a good week for the “pivot” people and asset gatherers who have been begging the Federal Reserve for lower rates. We got a higher-than-expected CPI and PPI. Making things worse, the short-term monthly numbers have started to accelerate meaning the disinflation story might be dead for now. Retail sales and manufacturing numbers were … Read more
Weekly Points – March 8th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Powell Just Hit the Panic Button Issue
This week, Jerome Powell spoke to Congress and was more dovish than he’s been in years. He’s gone from channeling former Fed Chairman, Volker, who crushed inflation with interest rates approaching 20% to sounding like Volker’s predecessor, Arthur Burns, who reduced interest rates before getting inflation under control. We saw weaker than expected job reports, … Read more
Weekly Points – March 1st, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Everyone is Wrong and Should Admit it Issue
In December, we produced a version of the 5 Things titled “The Smart People Doing Smart Things Issue”. This time, we’re not so positive. This was a week of people being consistently wrong including Bitcoin bears who refuse to apply a consistent lens for their thesis when it’s not working, Fed doves who keep insisting … Read more
January PCE of 2.4% is Consistent with Expectations
This morning, we got the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up .3% vs last month and 2.4% vs last year. The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, was up .4% vs last month and 2.8% vs last year. All of … Read more
CPI Analysis Out This Morning
CPI was announced 15 minutes ago and came in above expectations. Full analysis will be up on the blog this morning, but after the 9am email. Please check here shortly – thank you.
Federal Reserve Shocks Market by Doing Exactly What They Said They’d Do
The Federal Reserve concluded its January meeting by deciding to keep the fed funds rate unchanged. There have been times in the last couple of months where the market put a 60% – 70% probability of a January rate cut. DKI has insisted all along that while we’ve hit the terminal rate (the highest fed … Read more