This piece was originally published on November 27th, 2023. Overview: Market pundits have been spending the last two years predicting recessions. The typical setup right now is they project it will happen in the next 2-3 quarters. Every week, I see pundits projecting a recession in 1H 2024. Many of them are the same people … Read more
The Disinflation/Deflation Issue We got lots of macro news this week featuring lower levels of inflation (disinflation) and in some cases, lower prices (deflation). Long-term, DKI continues to believe that excessive Congressional spending and the ensuing currency creation (dollar printing) will lead to long-term inflation and long-term higher interest rates. For now, there is increasing … Read more
Darren writes in with a question about modern monetary theory (MMT). It’s basically the fiat economics we’re accustomed to in the US and Europe. I’m an advocate for hard money and less government interference in the economy. Darren’s question is smart and right on target given all DKI has written recently on the disastrous inflation … Read more
Robb Fahrion and I discuss the 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Disinflation / Deflation Issue. Let me know what you think about the format.
The Close the * Door Issue: We saw the most entertaining press conference by a Federal Reserve Chairman in decades. Jerome Powell “surprised” Wall Street by saying exactly the same thing he’s been saying for almost two years, then got caught on a hot mike wanting to shut the door on badly-behaved protesters. A Treasury … Read more
The new CPI report came in below expectations. This is bullish for the market, and the futures are up ahead of the open. Full analysis of the report will be posted to the blog this morning. I’m updating some graphs right now. Please check back shortly. Thanks!
