I’m still in Antigua, Guatemala where the weather is beautiful and I was woken up at 1am by the second earthquake in two weeks here. If one of you has upset a volcano, please apologize. The Federal Reserve kept the fed funds rate unchanged. Many expressed concern regarding the three dissenters who wanted a 25bp … Read more
The Federal Reserve concluded its July meeting and elected to keep the fed funds rate unchanged. Wall Street had a meaningful probability on a small rate hike (around 33%). While I understood the logic, and would have voted to hike had I been in the room, I was on record saying I thought they’d hold. … Read more
Quick announcement: I’m off and working from new locations for another year. I’ll be in Antigua, Guatemala for the next few weeks. While I’m here, I’m open to a small number of in-person conversations. If you’re based locally, or know someone here you think it would be worthwhile for me to meet, feel free to … Read more
As a reminder, I’m using the new shorter format here. I think the previous 9-10 page commentary was helpful when I started writing it every month, but is no longer serving us well. The CPI report does matter, but it’s not driving markets like it did in ’22, ’23, and ’24. In addition, the economy … Read more
The Fed completed its first Warsh-led meeting and promptly spooked the market with a hawkish dot plot. I think that doesn’t matter as inflation is being driven by Congress. Warsh is declining to provide guidance which I view as a positive. All the chatter wasn’t getting us better results and the Fed tends to be … Read more
The Federal Reserve completed its June meeting and the first one with Kevin Warsh as Chairman. The details: – The Fed kept the fed funds rate unchanged. This was the overwhelming consensus expectation. – On the dot plot, nine of 19 Fed officials expect an increase in the fed funds rate later this year. (Warsh … Read more
The CPI rose again and cracked 4%. Energy is still expensive, but you already knew that. The big issue is Powell never got inflation under control. People panicked that Warsh would cut. He can’t and at this point, there’s nothing the Fed can do (something I’ve been saying for the past two years). Bitcoin has … Read more
As before, I also think the previous 9-10 page commentary was helpful when I started writing it every month, but is no longer serving us well. The CPI report does matter, but it’s not driving markets like it did in ’22, ’23, and ’24. In addition, the economy doesn’t change completely from month to month … Read more
Uber is trying to buy Delivery Hero. It would give Uber greater market access in Asia and the Middle East. PCE showed continued increases in inflation and GDP is weaker than expected. The Powell Fed never got inflation under control and the GDP numbers are polluted by wasteful government spending that doesn’t help US citizens, … Read more
