Market Commentary

Is the Federal Reserve Going to Crash Japan?

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This is an excerpt from the DKI July letter: DKI has written and spoken extensively about Japan’s financial problems. In a piece titled “Japanese Debt – We’re Taking a Victory Lap,” we provided links to our predictions that the Bank of Japan would eventually have to capitulate to market demands for higher rates. 10 Year … Read more

5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – July 28th, 2023

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The Corporate Earnings and Clickbait Issue In honor of the entire mainstream media squawking about interest rates at 22-year highs (while being in-line with long-term trends), we’ll be introducing all of this week’s “Things” with clickbait headlines. This week, DKI readers and Twitter (or “X”) followers will get to read about: Fed Raises to Highest … Read more

What’s Wrong with Young People These Days?

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This is an excerpt from the DKI July letter: Last month, I had the opportunity to spend a day with most of DKI’s former and current interns here in Westport, CT. Over lunch, each took a turn talking about how they got their current jobs. Every single one of them has found great first jobs … Read more

5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – July 21st, 2023

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The Banking Issue The banks announced earnings this week. We’ll examine the performance of the Too Big to Fail (TBTF) banks vs the investment banks vs the regionals. Does the government have their thumb on the scale pushing deposits and profitability to one sector? Yes, and we’ll discuss why it matters. Plus, bonus points on … Read more

Is the VIX Lying to Us?

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This is an excerpt from the DKI July letter: The VIX is an index that measures market expectations for volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. The index tends to have a skew in it because investors are much more concerned about downwards volatility than upwards volatility. As a result, we’ll typically … Read more

Higher for Longer:

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This is an excerpt from the DKI July letter:   Over a year ago, the “pivot people” started calling for the Fed to pivot to lower rates. At the time and for the past year, DKI has said that we were nowhere near a pivot and that we expect the Fed to continue raising. Shortly … Read more

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