Why Haven’t We Had a Recession Yet?

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This piece was originally published on November 27th, 2023. Overview: Market pundits have been spending the last two years predicting recessions. The typical setup right now is they project it will happen in the next 2-3 quarters. Every week, I see pundits projecting a recession in 1H 2024. Many of them are the same people … Read more

Thanksgiving Appreciation

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I’ve always thought Thanksgiving is an important holiday. There’s something admirable about having a day to reflect on the good things in our lives and to express gratitude. Apologies for not getting this out sooner, but I spent yesterday traveling and am writing this from the Tokyo airport at 6am. I’m a day late, but … Read more

5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Disinflation/Deflation Issue

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The Disinflation/Deflation Issue We got lots of macro news this week featuring lower levels of inflation (disinflation) and in some cases, lower prices (deflation). Long-term, DKI continues to believe that excessive Congressional spending and the ensuing currency creation (dollar printing) will lead to long-term inflation and long-term higher interest rates. For now, there is increasing … Read more

Smart Question on MMT From a DKI Reader

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Darren writes in with a question about modern monetary theory (MMT). It’s basically the fiat economics we’re accustomed to in the US and Europe. I’m an advocate for hard money and less government interference in the economy. Darren’s question is smart and right on target given all DKI has written recently on the disastrous inflation … Read more

Argentina Votes to #EndTheFed

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DKI readers are well-aware of my view that the size and expenses of the US government are unsustainable, and that Congress has decided to fund trillions of dollars of spending with inflation-causing debt (dollar-creation). Further, this fiscal malfeasance is enabled by the Federal Reserve, an institution that instead of maintaining any kind of financial order, … Read more

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