Portfolio Update – March ‘26
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Month: March 2026
The Fed Holds
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In Which I Potentially and Politely Disagree with Citrini
Last month, Citrini Research published a thought piece on the potential impact of AI on the economy. They presented it as an article written in 2028 when the imagined unemployment rate exceeded 10%. The gist of the piece was that AI replaced the functionality of so many Software as a Service (SaaS) companies that those … Read more
5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Mines in the Strait Issue
Is the Strait of Hormuz closed? There have been rumors of ships on fire and Iranian success in adding mines. Some of these rumors were lies and later became true, but as long as captains and ship owners think there’s danger, then the Strait is effectively closed. We saw intra-day oil price moves of 20% … Read more
Portfolio Update
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February CPI is 2.4%
Overview: Today, we got the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report which showed an overall increase of 2.4% for the last year. That’s flat compared to last month and consistent with expectations. The monthly change was 0.3% also consistent with the estimate. The Core CPI which excludes food and energy was up 2.5%, flat with … Read more
Finance and Our Feelings – A Three Step Plan to Avoid Bad Decisions
Introduction: It’s normal to experience negative emotions when our portfolio isn’t doing well. Many people think professional investors don’t experience the same feelings that amateurs do. I can assure you that for the vast majority of us, that isn’t true. Losing money is horrible. When my portfolio isn’t doing well, I often feel awful. That’s … Read more
5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Many Ayatollahs Issue
The US and Israel are knocking out Ayatollahs as fast as Iran can appoint them. Did they kill the entire 88-member council that appoints the next one? We don’t know which explains why DKI didn’t make changes to the portfolio this week despite high market volatility. Our long-term thesis explaining why we own Bitcoin, gold, … Read more
Post Hoc Analysis
As before, anything I write regarding the situation in Iran is based on what I believe to be true right now. None of us know how accurate any individual report is. Every party involved has an incentive to shape opinions regardless of what’s really happening on the ground. Again, I’ve seen videos claiming to show … Read more
Iran and the Portfolio
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