Market Commentary

January PCE of 2.4% is Consistent with Expectations

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This morning, we got the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. This is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve. The PCE was up .3% vs last month and 2.4% vs last year. The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, was up .4% vs last month and 2.8% vs last year. All of … Read more

Weekly Points – February 23rd, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The All Nvidia All the Time Issue

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At the beginning of the week, we heard the hyperbolic prediction that the Nvidia ($NVDA) earnings report was the most important of all time. That’s ridiculous, and given the reaction of stock markets worldwide, may actually be true. The Fed disappoints investors again and despite Powell saying “higher for longer” for almost two years, somehow … Read more

Weekly Points – February 16th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Opposite Day Issue

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This week, economic data decided to pull a George Costanza and do the opposite of everything it has been doing. DKI has highlighted the trend of inconsistent data in recent months, and this week, many of those inconsistent trends reversed. Confusing? Don’t worry, we’ll explain. We also have some excellent fundamental news from Shockwave Medical … Read more

Weekly Points – February 9th, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Silly People Saying Silly Things Issue

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Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen speaking in public typically leads to her accidentally saying things out loud that confirm the fears of her critics. At the same time, the Bitcoin bears who celebrated a small decrease in the dollar price of Bitcoin last month have gone into hibernation causing quiet in my Twitter/X feed. I believe … Read more

CPI Analysis Out This Morning

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CPI was announced 15 minutes ago and came in above expectations. Full analysis will be up on the blog this morning, but after the 9am email. Please check here shortly – thank you.

Weekly Points – February 2nd, 2024 – 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week – The Surprise Higher for Longer Issue

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The Federal Reserve surprised the market by leaving the fed funds rate unchanged and indicating its not inclined to lower at the next meeting in March. The market was disappointed, but a better-than-expected manufacturing index with higher-than-expected pricing plus a seemingly hot labor market support the Fed’s decision. There was huge growth in jobs, but … Read more

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