Let’s go through why the market indexes have been down during part of the past couple of days and why some DKI positions aren’t currently performing like they’re “supposed” to perform. Right now, everything relates to the bond market. After years of interest rate suppression caused by the Federal Reserve and assisted by the US … Read more
Quick announcement: I’ll be in Bangkok, Thailand for the next 1 – 2 weeks before returning to New York briefly. While I’m here, I’m open to a small number of in-person conversations. If you’re based locally, or know someone here you think it would be worthwhile for me to meet, feel free to reach out … Read more
The big news of the week was President Trump announcing tariffs in excess of what the market expected. Equity indexes immediately fell and continued that trend for the following two days. While most of the commentary was negative, I’m not convinced the approved consensus is correct. The short version is in this edition of the … Read more
DKI has been warning about a weak private sector for more than a year, but consumers kept spending down their savings and taking on more debt. Recent data indicates we might be reaching the end-point of that practice as debt peaks and sales are weak. The Federal Housing Administration appears to be paying the mortgages … Read more
Happy New Year to everyone. We’re going to kick off 2025 by re-releasing an expanded and improved version of our 2021 white paper where we challenged Nassim Taleb’s assertion that Bitcoin was worth zero. The official release will be on Twitter/X in the middle of the week. We’re asking everyone to like and repost so … Read more
