One of the key elements to investing is to figure out what you know that the market is missing. The efficient market hypothesis taught in academia is incorrect. It states that all available information on any stock is available to the market as a whole and is continually reflected in its stock price. If that … Read more
A personal update: Friday’s surgery went well. I was in a lot of pain over the weekend, but am feeling better every day. I’m doing well, am able to work without limitations, and expect to make a full physical recovery on schedule. I’m so appreciative of all the nice messages I’ve received from the DKI … Read more
I’d like to start this week with a personal note. As many of you know, I had surgery on Friday. Everything went well, and while I’m in considerable pain, I have every reason to expect that I’ll make a full recovery. My current situation represents the best-case scenario and the outlook is excellent. I expect … Read more
As many of you know, I rented my house out last year and spent the year traveling and working from different places. It was an amazing experience. I engaged more with religion, meditation, art, architecture, and nature more than I do in my “normal” life. The trip was great for my health. I walked, explored, … Read more
The Fed completed its first Warsh-led meeting and promptly spooked the market with a hawkish dot plot. I think that doesn’t matter as inflation is being driven by Congress. Warsh is declining to provide guidance which I view as a positive. All the chatter wasn’t getting us better results and the Fed tends to be … Read more
The Federal Reserve completed its June meeting and the first one with Kevin Warsh as Chairman. The details: – The Fed kept the fed funds rate unchanged. This was the overwhelming consensus expectation. – On the dot plot, nine of 19 Fed officials expect an increase in the fed funds rate later this year. (Warsh … Read more
The CPI rose again and cracked 4%. Energy is still expensive, but you already knew that. The big issue is Powell never got inflation under control. People panicked that Warsh would cut. He can’t and at this point, there’s nothing the Fed can do (something I’ve been saying for the past two years). Bitcoin has … Read more
As before, I also think the previous 9-10 page commentary was helpful when I started writing it every month, but is no longer serving us well. The CPI report does matter, but it’s not driving markets like it did in ’22, ’23, and ’24. In addition, the economy doesn’t change completely from month to month … Read more
I got a great question from “M” this morning. Copying his question and my reply here. Let me know what you think at IR@DeepKnowledgeInvesting.com or feel free to post your thoughts in the comments to this piece. From “M” First, you’re really putting out great stuff, and obviously, the input behind it is extensive and … Read more
