Market Commentary

Tariffs – What if Everyone is Wrong?

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Introduction: I watched President Trump’s tariff press conference yesterday. When the Wall Street Journal reported that the tariff level would be only 10%, the equity indexes traded up about 2% in the aftermarket. Then, the President pulled out charts that showed that in addition to the 10% baseline tariff, there would be additional reciprocal tariffs … Read more

Fed March ’25 Meeting – Still on “Pause”

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The Federal Reserve concluded its March meeting and surprised no one by keeping the fed funds rate unchanged. Let’s go through the details:   As I type this, Jerome Powell is delivering his prepared remarks at his press conference and reiterated his typical language of being “data driven”. He’s also talking about a higher-than-usual level … Read more

Shutdown Theater

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I think the primary reason the market was up big on Friday was Senate Democrats caved and agreed to the Republican spending bill. This avoided a pending government shutdown. Even though Democrats wanted more spending, the stated reason for agreeing to the bill was that if Democrats didn’t, they feared that during the ensuing government … Read more

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