The Federal Reserve concluded its July meeting and elected to keep the fed funds rate unchanged. Wall Street had a meaningful probability on a small rate hike (around 33%). While I understood the logic, and would have voted to hike had I been in the room, I was on record saying I thought they’d hold. … Read more
Intel crushes estimates and raises guidance. Results in the 18A plant are ahead of expectations. They increase the cap-x budget to meet profitable demand. Yet the stock fall. We explain. In recent weeks, we’ve taken on the issue of personal ownership of purchased goods. President Trump is addressing the right to repair issue in favor … Read more
Quick announcement: I’m off and working from new locations for another year. I’ll be in Antigua, Guatemala for the next few weeks. While I’m here, I’m open to a small number of in-person conversations. If you’re based locally, or know someone here you think it would be worthwhile for me to meet, feel free to … Read more
In April, I wrote a piece titled “The Strait of Hormuz Reverse Uno Card” which also went viral on X. In that piece, I credited President Trump with a smart move blockading the Strait in order to prevent Iran from charging vessels $2MM to traverse it safely. I wrote: This looked like worst-case scenario for … Read more
As a reminder, I’m using the new shorter format here. I think the previous 9-10 page commentary was helpful when I started writing it every month, but is no longer serving us well. The CPI report does matter, but it’s not driving markets like it did in ’22, ’23, and ’24. In addition, the economy … Read more
Quick announcement: I’ll be in Antigua, Guatemala for the next few weeks. While I’m here, I’m open to a small number of in-person conversations. If you’re based locally, or know someone here you think it would be worthwhile for me to meet, feel free to reach out privately at IR@DeepKnowledgeInvesting.com. Last week, we reported … Read more
Last month, President Trump was talking about revaluing the gold reserves of the United States. This is a topic he’s broached at other times as well. The expected discussed benefits include strengthening the balance sheet of the Untiled States. Some also think this would cause an increase in the price of gold. I think the … Read more
One of the key elements to investing is to figure out what you know that the market is missing. The efficient market hypothesis taught in academia is incorrect. It states that all available information on any stock is available to the market as a whole and is continually reflected in its stock price. If that … Read more
A personal update: Friday’s surgery went well. I was in a lot of pain over the weekend, but am feeling better every day. I’m doing well, am able to work without limitations, and expect to make a full physical recovery on schedule. I’m so appreciative of all the nice messages I’ve received from the DKI … Read more
