Introduction:
I think about ProCap Financial as two businesses. The company owns 5,457 Bitcoin worth $354MM as of August 7th, 2026. There is also a startup AI-powered financial business called CFO Silvia. The total market capitalization (aggregate value) of the company is $238MM which means that you’re paying 67% of NAV if you buy the stock at current prices. Phrased differently, you’re paying negative 33% for the optionality of the company succeeding in turning CFO Silvia into a profitable AI financial services business.
CFO Silvia:
In its current form, Silvia allows investors to upload their personal financial information and then ask questions. The AI can provide portfolio analysis, explain risk factors, or tutor investors about various investing and economic issues. The company recently reported that Silvia has about 12,000 users with $50B in assets uploaded to the platform. That’s an average account size of $4.2MM. Silvia’s users are wealthy, sophisticated, and don’t feel like they’re well-served by the traditional asset management model. 15% of users have opted for the paid version of CFO Silvia which costs $17/month for the Pro tier and $200/month for the Max tier. I would have been impressed if the company had a 5% paid conversion rate. A 15% rate is incredible and says something significant about both the value users see in the platform as well as their financial capability. For this group, $17/month isn’t significant. Engagement is excellent with paying users submitting an average of 20 questions to Silvia per week.
As of now, there aren’t meaningful financials available for CFO Silvia. It’s likely that the business is currently losing money. I believe the plan is to attract a larger userbase and then cross-sell other financial products such as asset management, credit cards, and banking services. There is also the opportunity to put ads on the platform, something that could work well to gain revenue from the 85% of free users and provide an incentive to upgrade. On the asset management side, there is already a small venture capital fund which earns hedge fund-type fees for $BRR. Company investment in this fund is small (about $100k in a $10MM fund) and is intended to remain small in order to limit risk. CEO, Anthony Pompliano, does invest in the fund alongside others and on the same terms.
The big expense for CFO Silvia is tokens for the LLMs (large language models) which are needed to answer user questions. In an effort to keep these costs reasonable the company has done three smart things. First, it’s avoided launching an app which would allow people to submit more questions more often from their phones. I believe the company will launch an app in the future once it has a better handle on usage and costs. Second, they’ve limited the number of questions free users can submit. That keeps costs lower for the people using the platform without paying and incentivizes the ones who want to make more frequent use of the platform to pay the small monthly fee. Third, $BRR has built a sophisticated question router which directs the complicated analysis-heavy questions to the more capable models which are more expensive. If someone asks a simple question like what’s the level of the S&P 500 as of today’s close or what’s the return on the NASDAQ year-to-date, those questions are routed to less capable and less expensive models. It’s a smart approach and I expect to see more companies copy it in the future. It’s already working and reducing per user costs. New LLMs are also more efficient and token costs for both US-based and Chinese models are falling quickly.
Users have been contacting the company and requesting AI-powered analysis. ProCap has a new product called ProCap Insights. Users pay $1,000/year for stock and market analysis created by Silvia. There is no meaningful financial information available for this product yet, but there is some revenue and the costs to the company are low.
Silvia Asset Management launched about a month ago. It is intended to help individual investors manage their portfolios. The product is too new to have meaningful financial information and none is currently available.
Update: While this report was in edit, ProCap announced that it tested Silvia in tax knowledge against six other LLMs including Claude, Grok, and ChatGPT. Silvia outscored all competitors in a blind test of expert-level scenarios covering federal tax law and the tax codes of five different States. Management concluded that domain-specific or application-specific AI can beat the general LLMs in its specific area of expertise.
Other Business Lines:
For those of you who read through the 2025 10-K, you’ll some additional business lines listed. There used to be a staking and options business operating in the crypto market. That was non-core, had operational risk, and made understanding the company more complicated for investors. That business has been shut down. There is also an advertising business. Pompliano has a huge social media following and the current CFO Silvia userbase is wealthy and sophisticated. $BRR media (emails, letters, and videos) all offer opportunities for advertising and sponsorship. This has to be done carefully as the userbase has little patience for constant ads, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see advertisers and sponsors pay high rates for access to the Silvia users.
Pomp:
I’ve just described Silvia as a venture capital business. CFO Silvia is early enough in its lifecycle that it lacks profits and meaningful financials. The other businesses have either just launched or will be launched in the coming years. These businesses will succeed or fail based on the efforts of the company CEO, Anthony Pompliano, who goes by the nickname Pomp.
Recently deceased cartoonist and influence expert, Scott Adams, used to write about people who had a complimentary talent stack. According to Adams, successful people didn’t necessarily need to be the best in the world in a particular field as long as they had multiple complimentary skills and were good at execution. Let’s look at the areas where Pomp has demonstrated excellence.
Macroeconomics: Long-time DKI readers know of my concerns regarding the hazards of the unlimited printing/unlimited spending always present in the fiat-based money system. Pomp shares those views and understood the issues years ago. He was early and correct about the inevitable currency debasement resulting in the loss of purchasing power of the dollar.
Execution/Action: It is common for investors and economists to have ideas, but not be able to find a trading expression for that idea in order to create profits. Pomp identified the best vehicle possible as an expression of his understanding of the debasement of the dollar (and all fiat). He bought Bitcoin early and held it.
Communication: It is also common for smart people with good ideas to struggle communicating those ideas to an audience. Pomp is a gifted speaker who can take complicated ideas and explain them to an audience of people who aren’t experts in the subject-matter. He has an engaging style, is clear, and adept at speaking in front of an audience or on television. I’ve seen him operate in real time without notes or a script.
Social Media: Many people who are good communicators aren’t good at attracting a significant audience on social media. It’s a different skill-set and requires regular content and a specific style of communication. Pomp has 2.2MM followers on X, an incredible number in the financial community where very few credible voices crack an audience of 500k. He has almost 650k subscribers on YouTube. Again, this is a huge number for a financial channel. He has a meaningful presence on other social media platforms as well.
I think the above talent stack is enough to believe that Pomp can deliver on growing the CFO Silvia business into a leading AI-based financial services platform. However, there is one key additional quality that’s crucial to this conclusion.
Drive and Shareholder Orientation: I have spoken with Pomp on a couple of occasions and we follow each other on X. I’ve found him to be intelligent, open, and straightforward. I have not asked him about his net worth, but given his large Bitcoin position, it’s reasonable to assume he has multi-generational wealth. Pomp could easily focus solely on family life and enjoy his position as a Bitcoin celebrity. Instead, he started ProCap Financial. I think there’s something worth admiring in people who have great wealth and are still driven to build something new.
Of equal importance, is his approach to shareholder value and to running a shareholder-friendly company. Pomp takes an annual salary of $1 and intends to pay himself with stock options. The remarkable thing about his options package is those options are far out of the money. From the 2025 10-K:
It’s easy for people to look at this and say that Pomp has reserved millions of shares for himself leading to future dilution. As I write this, the last price for $BRR was $1.77. That means Pomp has to get the stock up 8.7x from its current level to start receiving compensation. That pay scale maxes out at $50 which is 28x the current stock price. My conclusion: Pomp will make a fortune as the $BRR CEO only after he has delivered massive value to shareholders. Should he do that, my response will be “pay the man and say thank you”. I’d like to see more CEOs with this kind of personal drive and shareholder-friendly practices.
Risks:
No Business Results: CFO Silvia is a start-up business. I have no way to put together a financial model and to value the business. Most of the products don’t exist yet and the ones that do are new enough that there’s no operating history. In this matter, I’m relying on two things. First, we’re paying approximately negative 33% of the money invested in $BRR at the current price for Pomp to build this business. Second, at current Bitcoin prices, management believes they have 20 years of resources available to build the business. That implies operating expenses and capital expenditures of about $17.7MM per year. There isn’t a track record yet, but I think we’re getting paid to take this risk. The company has more than enough time to execute the business plan.
Bitcoin Price: Bitcoin has been a volatile asset and the stock price of $BRR will react to changes in the dollar price of Bitcoin. If you want to own ProCap Financial, but don’t want to have exposure to Bitcoin, you could buy $BRR and either short Bitcoin or short one of the Bitcoin ETFs. In my case, I bought a position in $BRR and sold an equivalent dollar amount of $IBIT. (Most of my Bitcoin is in self-custody, but I do own some $IBIT as well.) As a result of that trade, I now have the same amount of dollars invested with a claim on a greater number of Bitcoin plus exposure to the potential success of CFO Silvia. Note that this exposure goes both ways as there’s no guarantee of success. That’s the bet I’m making for the reasons listed above. I’m not claiming there’s a “free lunch” here; just that you can structure ownership of $BRR while limiting your exposure to Bitcoin. In my case, my exposure to Bitcoin is greater. I’m just presenting options for people who want to structure specific exposure.
Mismatch Between Assets and Expenses: ProCap Financial has its assets in Bitcoin, but its expenses for staff, tokens, advertising, and development will be primarily denominated in dollars. A mismatch between a volatile funding asset and fixed expenses in a different asset can be dangerous. In this case, Bitcoin is down about 50% from its all-time high. If it were to fall an additional 50% (for a total drawdown of around 75%), then ProCap Financial would have “just” 10 years of funding available to build out CFO Silvia. I’m prepared to take that risk. Note that many Bitcoiners have pointed out that we are at the point in the four-year halving cycle where Bitcoin typically bottoms. This is true; however, I’m a long-term Bitcoin holder (hodler) and can’t offer any guarantees that we’ve hit bottom for this cycle.
Dilution: Some critics of $BRR have pointed out there’s substantial possible dilution to common shareholders. In my calculation of aggregate value, I’ve included the warrants using the Treasury Stock method and note that $BRR would have to appreciate by 550% for those to be in the money. I’ve included the convert as debt which is the most unattractive treatment for the NAV calculation. That conversion price is $13.00 and the stock would have to appreciate by 634% for holders to profitably convert it to equity. I addressed the future dilution from Pomp’s compensation plan above. The stock has to appreciate by almost 9x from current levels for him to begin to receive value from this future dilution. By the time there is any significant increase in the share count of the common stock, investors will have made incredible returns. I’m more than fine with that.
Capital Allocation: This one isn’t actually a risk. I think management has made some excellent capital allocation decisions. They previously bought back most of the convertible debt at a significant discount to its initial sale price. They also sold some Bitcoin and bought back common stock, a move that was accretive to shareholder value. Management may make further capital allocation decisions, and has shown an inclination and ability to do so in a way that enhances shareholder value.
Reliance on One Person: ProCap Financial has a very small management team. The person driving the vision for the company and for the CFO Silvia product is Pomp. Many companies have key-man risk. In the case of $BRR that’s a significant one. The company relies on Pomp’s skills, vision, investor communication, social media presence, and management for its future success.
NAV Calculation:
Some financial sites show $BRR trading at 60% of NAV. I disagree with that calculation and have shown my work below so you can draw your own conclusions[1]:
[1] On June 1, 2026, the company announced it sold 52 Bitcoin and used the proceeds to repurchase 2MM shares of its common stock. I will update the model and NAV calculation following the release of the 2Q 10-Q. Adjusting for the transactions, the price/NAV remains 67%.
Conclusion:
I think of buying $BRR as buying Bitcoin with a negative 33% cost to gain exposure to Pomp building CFO Silvia into something significant. One near-term catalyst is the company will report 2Q results very soon. While there won’t be meaningful financial results to report yet, I think there are a lot of questions about the company and the future business plan. It wouldn’t surprise me if Pomp used the earnings call as an opportunity to explain the future of the business in greater detail. Wall Street hates uncertainty so the more transparency there is for the business, the better I think it will be for the stock price.
I also think every major investment bank, traditional asset manager, and investment firm is looking at how they can use AI to both reduce expenses and to reach a wealthy segment of the population that feels poorly served by the traditional financial advisory business. Should CFO Silvia demonstrate continued growth and new financial products begin to gain traction, I would expect firms in the traditional finance space to look at trying to acquire $BRR. This isn’t something I’ve discussed with management and I am not aware of any outside interest at this time. I am speculating based on what I believe industry focus and concerns are right now.
Information contained in this report is believed by Deep Knowledge Investing (“DKI”) to be accurate and/or derived from sources which it believes to be reliable; however, such information is presented without warranty of any kind, whether express or implied and DKI makes no representation as to the completeness, timeliness or accuracy of the information contained therein or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. The provision of the information contained in the Services shall not be deemed to obligate DKI to provide updated or similar information in the future except to the extent it may be required to do so.
The information we provide is publicly available; our reports are neither an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell securities. All expressions of opinion are precisely that and are subject to change. DKI, affiliates of DKI or its principal or others associated with DKI may have, take or sell positions in securities of companies about which we write.
Our opinions are not advice that investment in a company’s securities is suitable for any particular investor. Each investor should consult with and rely on his or its own investigation, due diligence and the recommendations of investment professionals whom the investor has engaged for that purpose.
In no event shall DKI be liable for any costs, liabilities, losses, expenses (including, but not limited to, attorneys’ fees), damages of any kind, including direct, indirect, punitive, incidental, special or consequential damages, or for any trading losses arising from or attributable to the use of this report.
[1] On June 1, 2026, the company announced it sold 52 Bitcoin and used the proceeds to repurchase 2MM shares of its common stock. I will update the model and NAV calculation following the release of the 2Q 10-Q. Adjusting for the transactions, the price/NAV remains 67%.
